Into Tomorrow: Looking at the Extreme Future

June 29, 2010

see http://center.uoregon.edu/ISTE/2010/program/search_results_details.php?sessionid=50046362&selection_id=59460374&rownumber=18&max=28&gopage=15

and http://www.committedsardine.com/

living in exponential time, 30 steps get you to a billion

“living on the future edge” their book

based on moore’s law – chip double every 24 months, cost down by half – then revised to 18 months

moore now saying this will continue for 15 to 20 years, others say 100 years, now he’s saying faster, double every 12 months,  now every 6 months

consequences – like distribution of info (news, radio, tv, books, etc)

coming whether we admit it or not

extreme rate of change, in 2022 computers will be millions or billions of times more powerful

phone example, old analog phone to desk to cell, each step so disruptive

recorded music example, phonograph, reel to reel, cassette, cd, ipod

camera

computer

small, better, more disruptive, more things it can do

gps (map) changed the way we travel by giving us more info better

services changing in the same way, ie, shopping, woolwoorth, sears, walmart, online – disrupted retail and killed mom and pop businesses

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